More evidence-led than ever

The short version

Apiary Forecast has now moved fully into an evidence-led forage model.

This means that if you had selected a forage profile, it’s no longer used as it’s no longer needed.

Plant Atlas 2020 is now being treated as the sole evidence source for wild and semi-wild plant availability.

But first.

A reminder: What Apiary Forecast does

It shows what bee specific forage is available in a few mile radius of a location. It doesn’t show what’s available in an entire region, although it has UK wide information. Commercially, it’s aimed at hobby beekeepers, who have an available radius of around 20 miles, with up to three private saved apiaries and the choice of preset named settlements, each set location has a forage radius of around 5 miles within the 20 miles entitlement.

What Plant Atlas does, and doesn’t, tell us

Plant Atlas 2020 is official plant survey data covering the UK. It’s the jewel in the crown for understanding whether wild and semi-wild plants are recorded in an area, and stores that data in 2 km by 2 km squares called tetrads.

For Apiary Forecast, it’s extremely valuable because it categorically states what flora, and the quantity  thereof, is surveyed in any particular area. However, Plant Atlas can’t tell us everything.

It doesn’t tell us which managed crops are in a field this year. It doesn’t know whether oilseed rape has been planted near a particular apiary this season. It can’t see whether a verge has just been cut, a field is fallow, whether a garden area is unusually rich in nectar plants, or whether a farmer has changed land use. 

So the architecture needs to separate those things more carefully and in a much clearer way.

GONE: Your forage profiles.

Why? Because the location you use, either the settlement (town/city/village), or a private apiary location elsewhere, has all of the wild and semi-wild plant data now fully available to it around a 5-6 mile radius from the location. That includes forage in urban and suburban surrounds. Five miles is bee flight radius on a good day with the wind at their backs.

There’s no need for forage profiles.

Secondary Profiles are now a “Managed Forage”

For managed, garden, crop and amenity sources, the model needs to deal with them differently. Those sources may be very important, but they are not always visible in Plant Atlas data in the same way because they change from year to year, garden to garden, field to field.

• Flowering oilseed rape
• Flowering field beans/faba beans
• Flowering borage/phacelia/buckwheat
• Flowering managed clover/legume
• Flowering orchard/fruit block
• Flower-rich sown margin/pollinator strip
• Additional large garden/allotment belt

You need to select those as only you know if they’re present. If you need more than one, pick the most important one. If there’s any missing then paid members can request additions.

What this means for beekeepers

Apiary Forecast will show you what major sources are flowering in the bee flight radii of the location you choose.

It will not list out of season forage, don’t go looking for blossom out of season. Forage only appears when it’s in window.

What comes next

This work is part of a continuing improvement to the forage model.

This direction is right to help this service mature and be true to its aim.